The Impact of Oil Prices on the GDP of V4 Countries

Visegrad countries (V4-hereafter) and oil prices simultaneously. The
series for GDP and Oil prices are quarterly, covering the period from
December 1, 2000, to October 1, 2023. Neural network techniques
were performed to generate individual forecasts. The forecasts for
oil prices maintain higher accuracy than the GDP ones due to
autoregressive lags. In other words, current oil prices absorb
significant influence from past prices. The GDP forecasts for the V4
group indicate tremendous shock and moving growth to a lower
steady state. The lower growth observed by the end of the period
under review can be attributed to two subsequent non-economic
shocks: the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The
V4 countries faced difficulties after the outbreak of COVID-19,
mainly due to the stringency measures. In addition to accelerating
inflation, the war also disrupted energy commodities within supply
chains. These and other facts justify the low growth that awaits these
countries until 2028. Ultimately, the oil price until 2028 is estimated
to oscillate between $60 and $90 per barrel.