Determining Probabilities for a Commercial Risk Model of Czech Exports to China with Respect to Cultural Differences and in Financial Management

Anotace: Certain risks associated with particular human activities cannot be eliminated, with commercial risks representing factors of business success or failure. In the current turbulent environment, proper risk assessment and management is of utmost importance in maintaining competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to present the output of our research which focused on the assessment of commercial risk faced by exporters to China, specifically, determining the probabilities for commercial risk model management. Along with this, the cultural context of the Chinese market influencing risk size are explored, particularly the concepts of tan-wej, kuan-si, li-ťie and mien-c’, the effect of which was confirmed by our exporter survey. The research focused on Czech companies exporting goods and technologies to China. The study involves manufacturing enterprises (section C, CZ-NACE Rev. 2) as well as, more specifically, medium and large scale engineering, along with chemical and electrical power companies. Firms exporting common consumer goods, raw materials and recyclables were excluded from the study. The data were obtained from controlled interviews with company representatives (with 58 percent of the exporters participating in a 2013 research) and from Justice.cz (2016) which published economic results of all exporters registered in 2015. The study outcomes were further reviewed in 2016–2017 using follow-up interviews and literature reviews. In collecting the primary data and verifying research outcomes, semi-structured and structured interviews were conducted, following which methods of descriptive statistics and statistical dependence analysis were applied. The findings allow for the construction of a commercial risk assessment model for export to China, involving relative risk costs.