Petr Houdek, Petr Koblovský, Jan Plaček, Luboš Smrčka
Iluze kauzality a nadměrná důvěra ve schopnost predikce (kvazi)náhodných finančních událostí
Číslo: 1/2017
Periodikum: Acta Oeconomica Pragensia
DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.568
Klíčová slova: stochasticity, illusive causality, hot hand, risk taking, overconfidence, self-attribution, Stochasticita, iluzivní kauzalita, riskování, přehnaná důvěra, sebepřesvědčení
Pro získání musíte mít účet v Citace PRO.
aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of
the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial
markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random
success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically
occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets
confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasi)random events casually; they make incorrect
predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion
induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss
factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.