A spatial analysis of demographic and curricular influences on secondary education in Slovakia

Anotace: Regional disparities in secondary education present significant obstacles to equitable human capital development, particularly in areas where demographic decline and resource imbalances exacerbate the issue. This study examines the spatial and structural dynamics of secondary education enrollment in Slovakia, focusing on demographic and curricular factors. Using a random-effects spatial error model, we analyze panel data from districts over two decades (2003-2023). The model accounts for spatial interdependencies while addressing unobservable district-level heterogeneity. Specification tests confirm the model’s validity, demonstrating strong spatial autocorrelation in outcomes but minimal residual dependencies. The results indicate that secondary school enrollment clusters around urban districts, which consistently outperform rural areas. Youth and population density are the strongest predictors of enrollment, while curricular specialization also plays a critical role. Technical and medical programs positively impact enrollment, whereas agricultural and artistic programs show weaker effects. Interestingly, a higher proportion of university-educated residents correlates negatively with secondary enrollment, likely reflecting talent migration from rural districts. The results highlight the geographical clustering of high-performing districts in proximity to urban areas, influenced by demographic benefits and educational programs tailored to meet labor market demands. In contrast, remote regions face persistent challenges tied to structural and demographic disadvantages. Addressing these disparities will require strategic investments in digital infrastructure, curriculum modernization, and demographic stabilization policies.