Prediction of the Future Development of Gold Price

interesting and well-known precious metals as far as investment is
concerned. The paper aims to estimate the future development of
the gold price and determine whether the gold price actually
increases in times of economic recession. For the purpose of the
analysis, data about the daily gold price from 2006 to July 2020 is
used. To elaborate this paper, five methods of time series balancing
were employed, namely Neural Networks, Decision Tree, Gradient
Boosted Tree, Linear Regression, and Nearest Neighbours. The
methods are applied to a training data set, and the final model is
tested on the testing data set. The respective models' residues are
presented in a graphic form as well as the Probability Density
Histogram, Training Data Set Residues Histogram, and a graph of
testing data set residues. The future development of the gold price
for the next calendar year is predicted. Market participants buy gold
in the first moments of the economic recession in order to keep the
value of their property. Consequently, however, they lack cash and
are forced to sell the gold again. A similar development can be
expected now too. A global economic recession can be expected.
Debtors will have to get rid of their investments, which will cause
the gold price to fall dramatically. The gold price reaches its
maximum value at the end of the observed period; then, it should
decrease progressively to the end of 2020. At the beginning of 2021,
the price should slump. Then, in the following six months, it should
follow a growth path again.