The Economic Shockwaves of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Energy Sources Prices – The Impact on International Energy Markets

stability of the global energy sector, considering that Russia is a big
player in the industry, producing and exporting crude oil and natural
gas globally. This study aimed to empirically investigate the impact
of the conflict on the prices of energy sources in international
markets. The analysis was conducted using secondary data. The data
was for prices of various commodity products, including diesel,
petroleum, natural gas, and crude oil. The data was collected on
multiple international markets for periods from January 1, 2021 to
November 30, 2023. The analysis was conducted using trend analysis
and event study. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) was
adopted to run the event study analysis. The results indicated that
immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, major energy
products such as US crude oil, European crude oil, and the global
energy index experienced a sharp rise in price, followed by
significant price volatility over the following up to seven months. The
review of OPEC energy prices also indicated an increase in prices,
and volatility was experienced in countries producing and exporting
oil products. The event study further revealed that there was a sharp
increasing trend immediately after the event date and an upward trend
for more than ten months after the event, resulting in the highest
prices recorded in the event window. The study suggested three
policy implications - conflict should serve as a wake-up call on
diversification of energy sources, investment in alternative,
sustainable and green sources of energy to reduce the dependence on
oil, and promotion of international cooperation on energy security.