Kateřina Fridrichová, Adriana Ilavská

Taking a snapshot

Číslo: 2/2020
Periodikum: Obrana a strategie
DOI: 10.3849/1802-7199.20.2020.02.005-018

Klíčová slova: Prediction; Conflict Escalation; Structural Conditions; Early Warning; csQCA.

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Anotace: This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and resourced systems. Moreover, it offers a more sensitive estimation of an escalation.