Zdeněk Pikhart
Cyclical-Adjusted External Balance of Goods and Services in the Czech Republic
Číslo: 2/2018
Periodikum: Statistika
Klíčová slova: Business cycle, cyclical adjustment, external balance of trade
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Anotace:
Article develop the cyclical adjustment methodology of the balance of goods and services, which is beneficial
especially for a small open economy. Cyclical adjustment procedure is applied and adjusted to the Czech data
by quantifying cyclical determinants of foreign trade such as domestic and foreign output gap and trade prices
deviations from the trend. Results show that cyclical adjustment of external trade balance provide a useful
tool for assessing the sustainability of trade development and thus help to better analyze current situation and
forecast short-term future development.
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especially for a small open economy. Cyclical adjustment procedure is applied and adjusted to the Czech data
by quantifying cyclical determinants of foreign trade such as domestic and foreign output gap and trade prices
deviations from the trend. Results show that cyclical adjustment of external trade balance provide a useful
tool for assessing the sustainability of trade development and thus help to better analyze current situation and
forecast short-term future development.