Development of short-term prediction with regard to a number of accidents at work using the scoring method

rates of accidents at work in Poland and the presented analysis
develops the knowledge about the safety in the mining sector. The
work below presents a short-term prediction of the overall work
accident number in a selected industrial facility, developed on the
basis of statistical accident rate data and using 25 selected
econometric models. In the summary assessment of a specific
prediction, the scoring method was applied, taking the following
weights into consideration: C1 and C2 criteria (C) – 10 % each, C3
and C4 criteria – 20% each, and C5 criterion – 40 %, where: C1 was
the value of ex post prediction error  for the series including the
empirical data covering the period between 2007 and 2016; C2 was
the value of ex post prediction error  for the series including the
empirical data covering the period between 2007 and 2018; C3 was
the value of coefficient of random variation Ve for the ex post
predictions from the period between 2007 and 2016 (for all
predictions except the linear and linearized models, the RMSE*
value was applied to estimate their value); C4 was the value of
coefficient of random variation Ve for the ex post predictions from
the period between 2007 and 2018 (for all predictions except the
linear and linearized models, the RMSE* value was applied to
estimate their value); C5 was the value of ex post prediction error 
for the series including the empirical data covering the period
between 2017 and 2018. Statistical work accident rate data covering
the period between 2007 and 2018 were used in the analysis.