Energy Cycles

sciences. Environmental changes, heatwaves and natural disasters as
consequences of anthropogenic activities are headwinds to future
economic growth and development. There is an ongoing debate on
environmental degradation and its socio-economic impact. Here we
investigate the existence of primary energy (coal, gas, oil, nuclear,
solar, thermal, wind) cycles in England from 1700 to 2018. Using
turning points methodology (Harding & Pagan, 2002), we isolate
energy cycles and explain their phase characteristics. Offering
empirical evidence of energy cycles existence should assist
policymakers to gain additional quantitative knowledge to
understand and contain business cycles. Fossil fuels energy cycles are
closely linked to business cycles, but renewable energy cycles are
pushing forward, targeting the leading role. Energy cycles are the
missing link in the literature needed to understand business cycles
and future economic development. In this study, we supply
knowledge for understanding energy cycles and their relationship to
the business cycles. The estimated concordance index reveals a
systematic relationship between energy and business cycles with
conclusive results. Energy cycles in this century will become a major
force driving socio-economic events. Managers in the firms and
policymakers on the macro-level will need knowledge on energy
cycles since tracking energy cycles soon will become more important
to tracking business cycles. To this end, our study contributes to the
study of energy cycles as the source of business cycles.